Self-Fulfilment and Fertility Intentions: The Interplay of Cultural Values and Expected Welfare State Support

Sustained fertility decline in high-income societies increasingly reflects not just smaller family sizes but rising rates of childlessness. While economic uncertainty and institutional factors receive much attention, the role of value orientations and subjective motivations remains underexplored. This paper examines how the perceived self-fulfillment relevance of childbearing mediates the relationship between postmaterialist values and fertility intentions, and how this interplay is moderated by expectations of welfare-state childcare support. Drawing on the Rapporto Giovani 2022 survey across Italy, France, Germany, and Spain, we analyze a sample of childless adults aged 25-34. We first model the determinants of self-fulfillment valuation of parenthood by postmaterialism and welfare expectations. Next, we estimate a moderated mediation model - through generalized structural equation modelling with nonparametric bootstrap - to decompose the direct and indirect pathways linking values, perceived support, and fertility intentions. Our analysis reveals that welfare support may strengthen fertility intentions when it aligns with postmaterialist values by enhancing the meaning of parenthood, while in the absence of support the appeal of childbearing erodes. These findings underscore the importance of integrating motivational and institutional perspectives: policy effectiveness may depend not only on reducing structural constraints, but also on resonating with individuals’ value systems.