A Structural-Demographic Analysis of Japan: 1945–2050

Is it possible to forecast the dynamics of societal resilience and its obverse, sociopolitical unrest or even breakdown? This is the goal of Structural-Demographic Theory (SDT), which integrates mechanism-based models with data and focuses on the dynamics of structural drivers for instability over the long-term (thus, requiring a historical approach). Several recent studies utilizing the SDT framework have proven adept at predicting (or “retrodicting”) sociopolitical instability in c.20 past societies. It was also used in 2010 to successfully forecast the outbreak of US instability for 10 years in the future (in 2020). This study applies the SDT to explore the dynamics of another contemporary society. Our aim is to empirically test SDT in a most rigorous way, using it to forecast future dynamics of sociopolitical instability in Japan. Our research questions are: (1) how accurately (if at all) does the SDT framework predict future levels of sociopolitical instability; (2) What are the relative contributions of possible drivers of instability, including those proposed by SDT, as well as other theories, in explaining instability levels; and (3) are there key ‘leverage points’ that might help mitigate the negative consequences of instability? This article explains how we develop quantitative indices for SDT drivers of instability: mass immiseration, elite overproduction, and state fiscal distress. We then construct a Political Stress Index to track the evolution of these pressures from the 1990s to the present and implement a multipath forecasting model to project future trends through 2050, using a variety of intervention (or non-intervention) scenarios. Our plan is to revisit these predictions ten years in the future with the goal of assessing their accuracy.