The Sufficiency Gap: The Demand-Side Deficit in German, Dutch, and Norwegian Cement and Construction Decarbonization Roadmaps

Cement is an essential building material but producing it generates 7-8% of global CO₂ emissions. Two thirds of these emissions are process-related and cannot be eliminated by switching to clean energy sources. Meeting the Paris Agreement's call for "highest possible mitigation ambition" requires faithful assessment of all mitigation options, including demand-side measures to reduce cement emissions. To assess how actors define and justify their highest possible ambitions for the construction sector, we analyze cement decarbonization roadmaps in Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway: countries selected for their high floorspace per capita, which is a key indicator of significant potential for demand-side sufficiency measures in housing. We identified 30 decarbonization measures using qualitative document analysis. We coded the measures iteratively from roadmaps and literature and categorized them into a cement-specific mitigation hierarchy (Avoid, Reduce, Reuse, Substitute, Minimize, ‘Capture, Store and Recarbonate’) that integrates supply-side decarbonization with demand-side sufficiency in housing. Our findings expose a persistent sufficiency gap: roadmaps prioritize incremental technical solutions and speculative carbon storage, while neglecting transformative measures that reduce overconsumption like separating spacious living units, building smaller or house sharing. This inflates cement demand and associated residual emissions. We find that the current mitigation ambition is not a “highest possible mitigation ambition” but politically constructed version that sidelines demand-side sufficiency measures. Truly Paris-aligned pathways must integrate demand-side strategies through transdisciplinary collaboration, ensuring a faithful assessment of all mitigation options.