From Protest to Parliament: Lebanon’s October Revolution and the Rise of Movement Parties

Recent waves of protest have given rise to movement parties, or parties with strong ties to social movements that combine anti-system activism with opposition to governing parties and elites. We study the effects of Lebanon’s 2019 October Revolution, a series of nationwide protests that took place over several months and targeted an extractive elite that has governed for two decades. Difference-in-differences estimates show that localities where protests took place were more likely to support movement parties in the election that followed the uprising. We attribute this effect to the exclusionary nature of the electoral system and show that support for movement parties was greatest in areas neglected by existing parties. Our findings contribute new insight into the relationship between protest movements and electoral behavior. Movement parties persistently struggle to channel anti-government, revolutionary opposition into support for electoral alternatives—but not where they are able to exploit the weaknesses of existing parties.