Indentured Replacement Theory of Credential Inflation, Revisited (2000-2025)
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U.S. higher education operates as a mechanism of economic control, organized around the dynamics of replacement, credential inflation, and indenture. This paper revisits and updates the 2000 “Indentured Replacement Theory of Credential Inflation” that first argued this case, adding a 2024 lens on endowment capture. A descriptive synthesis of public data series reveals the scale of this control: student-loan balances stand at roughly $1.64 trillion with 90+ day delinquency near 10.2% (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2025); meanwhile, institutional endowments total $873.7 billionwith $30 billion in annual spending (NACUBO/Commonfund, 2025). Evidence on “degree reset” is mixed, and post-pause repayment frictions elevate delinquency risk. Policy developments in 2023–2025 increase scrutiny of institutional finances while providing limited direct borrower relief. The paper concludes by proposing structural, cultural, and market-facing remedies, evaluated by a simple test: does a given policy loosen—or tighten—the binding effects of debt on life chances?
