Early-Life Environmental Exposures and Socioeconomic Attainment: Evidence from Historical U.S. Census Data

Environmental stressors, and their downstream social and economic impacts, can affect a broad set of social processes and outcomes. One growing line of research examines how climatic and environmental exposures in early life affect later-life outcomes, which can occur through biological, developmental, and socioeconomic mechanisms. We contribute a historical perspective to this literature by leveraging unique, linked census data from early twentieth-century America (1900-1940). We match these data to historical temperature and precipitation estimates from the PRISM project at the county level. We then fit a series of regression models to measure the effects of exposures to temperature and precipitation anomalies in utero and during early childhood (i.e., the year before birth through age 5) on migration, marriage, labor force participation, and occupational prestige for men in early adulthood (i.e., ages 20 to 24). Our results show that temperature is positively associated with labor force participation and occupational prestige but negatively associated with the likelihood of marriage. Precipitation is positively associated with occupational prestige and negatively associated with marriage. Temperature and precipitation exposures are not significant predictors of migration prior to stratification. Additional models test for effect heterogeneity, revealing differences by region, farming status, and race. These findings underscore the complex and varied ways in which early-life climate exposures shaped socioeconomic trajectories in early twentieth-century America.