Disparities in educational mobility in the US by race and ethnicity, sex, and household income: results from a prospective cohort study 1999 to 2019

This study aimed to examine disparities in educational attainment in the US by sociodemographic subgroups over two periods (1999-2009, 2009-2019) allowing for pre- and post- Great Recession comparisons. We used Multistate Markov models to analyse longitudinal data from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to quantify the probability of transitioning between stages of educational attainment over time by race and ethnicity (Black, White, Hispanic and ‘Others’), sex and household income. We found large inequalities across both time periods in educational attainment between race and ethnicity groups. In the recent period, there were marginal improvements in starting college for Black men, but these improvements were not seen for other transitions, such as graduating from college. Overall, Black men with low household income were the least likely group to obtain a college degree. Our results highlight persistent educational inequalities in the US and identify when, and for whom, interventions may target specific barriers to college completion. We argue that in addition to targeted interventions, multisectoral action is needed to dismantle structural barriers in the education and other systems. The transition probabilities provided in this study have broad applications for modelling studies comparing such interventions, within the education system and beyond.