Review of After the Spike by Dean Spears and Michael Geruso

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Abstract

The eponymous Spike refers to the peak in world population and subsequent depopulation, which must inevitably occur if world fertility reaches and remains below replacement, which current levels of and trends in fertility strongly suggest. The question the book addresses is: if we were to choose between a persistently declining population size and a stationary one, what considerations should we bring to bear on that choice? I review the fertility evidence, summarise the authors' arguments and discuss the difficulty in providing evidence about can be done if one's goal is to stabilise world population.

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