Hostility and Avoidance: Refugee Preferences in the Face of Local Attitudes and Politics

How do local political attitudes and policies influence where refugees choose to live within host countries? This study investigates the internal mobility preferences of Syrian refugees in Turkey and Germany. Adopting a multi-method approach, we conducted a choice-based conjoint experiment with over 3,000 participants and a content analysis of qualitative survey data. The results of the experimental survey reveal that local attitudes and policies are more significant in shaping refugees’ destination preferences than economic factors and social ties. Additionally, the results of the content analysis demonstrate that Syrian refugees associate anti-immigrant local policies and attitudes primarily with exclusion, social isolation, discrimination, and heightened anxiety. Many refugees fear that such conditions and experiences may prevent them from developing a strong sense of belonging, leading them to avoid localities with restrictive policies and hostile attitudes. Our findings also demonstrate a strong deterrent effect of anti-immigration policies and discourses. From both normative and policy perspectives, we conclude that inclusive local policies and attitudes are essential for promoting refugees’ integration and psychosocial well-being.