The Trump Effect on Global Autocratization: Theory and Evidence from Israel and Turkey

How has the retrenchment of U.S. democracy promotion under President Donald Trump affected processes of autocratization in U.S. allies globally and in the Middle East specifically? We provide theory and evidence to address this question by analyzing two U.S. allies with pre-existing processes of executive aggrandizement: Israel and Turkey. We argue that the decline in U.S. pro-democratic pressure has enabled autocratization in both countries; however, the causal mechanisms and degree of U.S. “autocracy promotion” differ depending on two domestic factors. The first factor is political leaders’ pre-existing control over the state. When incumbents face domestic institutional constraints, the decline of U.S. democratic promotion can actively enable the dismantling of these constraints and transform into autocracy promotion. The second factor is domestic attitudes toward the United States. When public attitudes are pro-American, illiberal political leaders can leverage U.S. support as part of their domestic legitimation strategy. By contrast, in anti-American societies, leaders practice what we call “managed incoherence,” in which a leader’s anti-American narratives coexist uneasily with U.S. acquiescence to autocratization. We demonstrate the theory in Israel and Turkey, two U.S. allies with differing levels of incumbent control over the state and contrasting public attitudes toward the United States. We find that in both Israel and Turkey, the retrenchment of U.S. democracy promotion has enabled autocratization, but through different causal pathways. Our findings contribute to scholarly understanding of the international dimensions of democratic backsliding, authoritarianism in the Middle East, and the effects of U.S. hegemony.