Government-opposition relations in the parliamentary arena and electoral campaigns

Previous research has repeatedly suggested that the actions of parties in parliament, and specifically the interactions between the government and the opposition, are at least partially aimed at attracting voters. Indeed, recent works show that government-opposition relations in parliament do indeed correlate with consequent citizens’ attitudes. Of course, ordinary citizens – and most political experts – do not observe parliamentary activity directly but rather through news outlets, social media (which mostly echoes mainstream media), or the parties themselves. This chapter tests whether parties’ campaign messaging, as depicted in the media in the period leading up to the elections, indeed reflects their interactions in the preceding parliamentary term. Specifically, the chapter addresses three questions: a) is there a positive correlation between the degree to which parliamentary government-opposition relations are conflictual and the degree of conflict reflected in the news coverage of electoral campaigns? b) is there a correlation between government-opposition relations in parliament and their salience in the media coverage? c) does the media coverage mediate the effects of government-opposition relations on citizens’ voting behaviour? The chapter answers these questions using three distinct datasets covering 26 elections in 9 countries, combining parliamentary votes and electoral campaign media coverage.