What influences the time to reach a tenured university professorship? Insights from machine-learning

The race to professorship is influenced by many factors, ranging from individual achievements to systemic structures. Prior research has underscored the significance of aspects such as academic productivity, institutional affiliations, and personal choices in shaping academic careers, but comprehensive analyses in specific contexts remain limited. The last two decades have seen strategic shifts within the German academic system, most notably with the introduction of junior and tenure-track professorships intended to offer a more secure career path. Yet, uncertainties persist regarding the determinants of career trajectories to tenured university professorship. Addressing this gap, this paper uses unique and novel longitudinal data of German professors to elucidate the various pathways to professorship. Based on a sample of individuals who successfully secured full university professorship, we estimate comprehensive models using machine learning to determine relevant factors that predict the time needed to reach this position. Key correlates are obtaining a habilitation, having held positions with leadership responsibilities, and disciplinary fields.