Mapping Early Mid-Life Trajectories and Ultimate Childlessness: A Multichannel Sequence Analysis in Finland and Belgium

BACKGROUNDThe transition to adulthood has become increasingly diverse, with delays in residential independence, changing partnerships, and economic uncertainty contributing to varied life course trajectories including the entry into parenthood. Yet, little is known about how these multidimensional trajectories relate to ultimate childlessness across different institutional contexts.OBJECTIVEThis paper identifies typical early mid-life trajectories of partnership, income, and residential independence among men and women in two contrasting welfare regimes: Finland and Belgium, and explores how these are associated with remaining childless.METHODSUsing linked register and census data for cohorts born in 1974–75, followed from their early 30s to mid-40s, we apply multichannel sequence and cluster analysis to identify typical life course patterns across three domains. We then use linear regression models to assess how remaining childless, education and place of residence are associated with the degree of alignment with each trajectory type, as measured by representativeness scores (Helske et al., 2024).RESULTSFive trajectory types were identified in each country, including patterns of early and stable partnerships and others marked by delayed transitions. Remaining childless was mostly associated with later residential independence and the near absence of partnership formation. In Finland, a distinct cluster highlights how being single after a separation is also associated with childlessness. In contrast, stable marriage pathways were strongly associated with parenthood.CONTRIBUTIONThe study demonstrates how the interplay of partnership, residential independence and income trajectories, shaped by education and institutional context, produces distinct pathways associated with childlessness in early mid-life.