Immigration Attitudes and the Puzzle of Latinos’ Swing Toward the GOP

In the wake of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, scholars, politicians, and commentators alike frequently characterized Latino voters as unlikely to support anti-immigration candidates, especially when immigration is salient. However, between 2016 and 2024, Latinos were among the groups whose pro-GOP shift was the largest. How did Trump increase Latino support despite the mismatch between his opposition to unauthorized immigration and Latinos' historically pro-immigration views? We investigate this question primarily using multiple high-quality, population-based panels of Latinos interviewed in English or Spanish (2016-2024). We document a restrictionist turn in Latinos' attitudes, alongside perceptions that both parties slightly moderated. Immigration attitudes were consistently integrated with vote choice to roughly the same degree in 2016, 2020, and 2024 for both Latino and white voters, and do not prove especially predictive for Latinos. These findings demonstrate that while immigration has not waned in importance for Latinos, Democrats' advantage on immigration is eroding.