Advanced energy transitions: from technology policy to systems planning

As renewables become the dominant source of electricity, insufficient adaptations of overallsystem designs to the demands of renewables produce costs and uncertainties. Sustainabilitytransitions research has failed so far to foreground these issues due to its focus on earlytransition challenges and a theoretical emphasis on market diffusion, technology support, andmechanisms of weak coordination. In this paper, we argue that challenges and thus potentialsolutions in advanced transition phases differ fundamentally from those in early transitionstages. Demands for strong forms of coordination between system elements and acrossinstitutional spheres increase. However, such systems planning raises distinct capacity andlegitimacy demands. The availability of robust institutions for systems planning is therefore akey, hitherto neglected success factor for advanced energy transitions. To develop thisargument empirically, we draw on an in-depth qualitative case study of the German energytransition as a paradigmatic case in which successful renewable expansion has led to agrowing mismatch between legacy system features and transition affordances. Attempts toaddress this mismatch through enhanced, whole-of-system coordination oriented towardsGermany’s net zero goal have been met with institutional barriers that increase the power ofopponents. We argue that such problems are emblematic for advanced transitions.