Climate adaptation and institutional continuity: Understanding lock-in dynamics in China's grassland governance

Intensifying climate change poses growing challenges for socio-economic stability and rural livelihoods in China, particularly in ecologically sensitive regions such as the Inner Mongolian grasslands. Although climate adaptation has become a key policy priority, translating national objectives into locally effective action remains complex. A central challenge lies in the emergence of adaptation lock-ins—self-reinforcing institutional, epistemological, and policy dynamics that stabilize specific adaptation pathways while limiting alternative responses. This study applies the adaptive lock-in framework to examine how such dynamics have developed within China's grassland governance and how they shape climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity over time. Focusing on interactions among political–economic structures, centralized decision-making, and subnational implementation, the analysis explores how adaptation goals become institutionalized through formal policies, administrative procedures, and dominant knowledge frameworks. The study draws on 207 in-depth interviews with pastoralists, village cadres, and local officials in Inner Mongolia, complemented by a systematic review of climate adaptation and grassland management policy documents issued between 2002 and 2024. The findings suggest that adaptation lock-ins are closely intertwined with broader development and conservation agendas that influence infrastructure investment, risk framing, and institutional practice. While these arrangements facilitate policy coordination and implementation, they may also constrain flexibility in addressing diverse local conditions. By elucidating the mechanisms through which adaptation lock-ins form and persist, this study offers policy-relevant insights into how future climate adaptation efforts might strengthen responsiveness and resilience within existing governance frameworks, with implications extending beyond the Chinese context.