Who Enrolls and Who Melts? An Exploratory Pilot Study to Examine Behavioral and Institutional Factors in College Retention

Understanding the factors influencing college enrollment outcomes is critical for reducing melt. This exploratory pilot study examines demographic, behavioral, and intersectional predictors of summer melt among incoming first-year and transfer students at a large Southern California university. Using a mixed-methods approach, we analyzed survey responses (N = 1,679), text message engagement, and post-orientation workshop observations. Among the students who participated in the survey, only 1.85% experienced melt. Of the survey participants, 467 agreed to be contacted via text, email, or Zoom for continued post-orientation engagement, and the melt rate for contacted students was 1.93%. On the other hand, the institutional melt rate for all first-year students for that academic term was 21%. Non-resident students exhibited significantly higher melt rates, while first-generation status and race/ethnicity did not significantly predict melt. Behavioral factors such as cannabis use correlated with increased melt likelihood, while self-reported social engagement and financial concerns did not reach statistical significance. Qualitative findings revealed substantial student interest in mental health services, academic support, and logistical guidance, with transfer students expressing increased concerns about social integration. These findings underscore the importance of pre-matriculation support, tailored interventions for non-resident students, and proactive engagement to inform about financial and mental health resources.