Presidential Endorsements as Voter Cues: Evidence from the 2022 Midterm Elections

Presidential endorsements are coveted by Congressional candidates with the hopes of increasing electoral resources and improving electoral outcomes. However, not all presidential endorsements are beneficial to candidates at all times. For example, recent studies have shown that Donald Trump’s endorsements, in particular, had a negative impact on campaign resources during general elections. This research focuses on how presidential endorsements affect voter’s perceptions of and support for Congressional candidates. Using a preregistered survey experiment embedded in the 2022 Cooperative Election Study, we examine how respondents change ideological perceptions and support for a fictional candidate when presented with a presidential endorsement. We find that Trump endorsements carry a negative effect that is mediated by respondents’ ideological perceptions of the candidate. We corroborate these findings with observational analyses among verified voters in the 2022 midterm elections. Altogether, this paper offers a theoretical model that clarifies how this elite behavior impacts electoral decision-making.