Educational Assortative Mating and Singlehood in the United States: Past, Present, and Future Projections

The United States has undergone dramatic shifts in education over the last 60 years, with a rapid expansion of college attainment and the reversal of the gender gap in education, but their impact on educational assortative mating is unclear. Educational assortative mating shapes the distribution of resources within and between families, thereby influencing gender and family inequality. Though some scholars have posited that the decline in couples in which men have the educational advantage reflects “the end of hypergamy,” broader partnership trends complicate this narrative. Without understanding how educational expansion, women’s advantage in attainment, and increased singlehood contribute to trends in assortative mating, I argue such speculation is premature. I take a long-term perspective on the role these factors played in changing educational assortative mating and singlehood and assess whether shifts in population composition influence the future of partnership and singlehood. I present estimates of hypergamy, homogamy, hypogamy, and singlehood between 1960-2020 and leverage multi-dimensional population projections that incorporate educational attainment to estimate six future scenarios of change through 2050. Findings suggest the strong possibility of mating squeezes due to mismatches between men and women’s educational attainment and partnership preferences. I conclude that hypergamy, though changed, is far from ending.