Fear to Vote: Explosions, Salience, and Elections

This paper documents the disruptive role of antipersonnel landmines in the consolidation of post-conflict democracy. Leveraging the exogeneity in the timing of landmine explosions relative to election days, we compare electoral outcomes in voting polls located near pre-election explosions with those near post-election blasts. We find that landmine explosions act as salient stimuli, inducing fear and reducing voter turnout across the political spectrum. Due to the impossibility of manipulating the timing of a landmine explosion, our strategy uncovers the pure emotional effect of violence, net of any strategic objective of its perpetrator. Landmine bursts also induce emotion-driven changes in the voting behavior of those who do vote, thus altering electoral dynamics in addition to deterring political participation. Our findings highlight a novel dimension of the hidden costs of landmines, providingevidence on the intersection of conflict-related trauma and democratic consolidation.