Battling for Housing Value? The Nexus Between U.S. Presidential Elections and County-Level Housing Market Prices

The presidential election, as the most significant election in the United States, has numerous socio-economic impacts. The real estate market, one of the most closely watched sectors in recent years, has generally shown an upward trend in prices. This paper examines the county-level voting results in two presidential elections which are 2016 and 2020 and the corresponding changes in county housing prices, finding that when a county's presidential election voting results are inconsistent with the final election outcome, the county's housing market is affected, leading to a downward trend in prices. Additionally, counties with a preference for the Republican Party are more sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market when they experience electoral defeat. Other factors as races and income status also exhibit heterogeneity in response to policy shocks. This study's analysis of the relationship between presidential elections and the real estate market provides guidance for strategic decision-making in the real estate industry and contributes to a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of the impact of presidential elections on socio-economic life.