Realism and the Politics of Knowledge: A Theory of Science Diplomacy in Competitive Orders

This article advances a realist theory of science and innovation diplo-macy: a theory of how, in competitive orders, states manage knowledgeflows to alter relative power via two complementary logics: aggregation(clubs, alliance filtering, shared platforms) and constraint (controls, stan-dards, screening). The approach develops a two-dimensional policy mapwith domain salience ∆ (the degree to which advances in a field movethe balance of capabilities) and chokepoint intensity χ(how concentratedcontrol is along supply, compute, or standards chains). We prove sevenpropositions that connect (∆,χ) to instrument choice, generate observ-ables on collaboration networks, and motivate a spectral summary indexα for early warning after policy shocks. Empirically, we outline a sim-ple replicable workflow that maps collaboration to matrices and comparespre-/post-shock spectral structure to detect reconfiguration predicted bythe theory. The result is a realist account of knowledge statecraft: howstates strategically open, narrow, or reroute flows of know-how to shapethe distribution of power while preserving essential commons.