Voter Participation in the wake of natural disasters: Evidence from a state-level election in India

Natural disasters can shape political behaviour, yet their electoral consequences in the Global South remain understudied. Most work has focused on established democracies and vote choice rather than broader political engagement. In India – the world’s largest democracy – existing studies highlight how disasters influence electoral outcomes, but little is known about their effect on voter participation. This paper addresses that gap by examining the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, held shortly after devastating floods across 16 districts, and amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on original survey data and employing propensity score matching (PSM) to compare respondents from flood-affected and unaffected constituencies, this study investigates whether disaster exposure influenced online and offline participation in support of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or its main challenger, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB). We found no significant evidence that flooding increased participation for the MGB or the NDA. Moreover, moderation analysis revealed no significant evidence that the effects of flooding on participation were contingent on past voting choice, except for one variable related to the recirculation of pro-NDA online content (online participation) among past MGB voters. These findings underscore the resilience of entrenched political identities in India, showing that natural crises did not disrupt established patterns of voter mobilisation.Data Availability StatementData and R scripts used in this analysis are available from the authors upon reasonable request.