Phased Minimum Wage Increases and Fast-Food Employment: Evidence from New York in the 2010s–2020s

This study examines whether phased minimum wage increases in New York during the 2010s–2020s were associated with changes in employment within the limited-service restaurant sector. Extending prior quasi-experimental research, the analysis applies a within-state difference-in-differences framework exploiting temporal variation in policy implementation. Using publicly available administrative employment data, quarterly employment trends were evaluated at the county level to assess short-run and medium-run responses. Although modest regional and temporal fluctuations were observed, employment levels remained broadly stable following phased wage increases, with no statistically significant or sustained declines detected. By extending the empirical framework of earlier fast-food studies into a contemporary policy environment, these findings contribute to ongoing debates regarding the labor market consequences of gradual state-level minimum wage policies in modern service-sector economies.