Academic Trajectories of Public High Schools through the Great Recession: A 17-Year Group-Based Analysis in Georgia

Educational attainment is a critical social determinant of health, yet relatively little research has examined how long-run academic patterns at the school level evolve through periods of macro socioeconomic disruptions or shocks. This study investigates longitudinal academic trajectories among public high schools in Georgia across 17 years (2004-2020), spanning the Great Recession (GR), using group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to identify patterns in ACT performance and college scholarship eligibility. We also estimated the joint evolution of these outcomes. Differences in trajectory shape indicated academic pathways diverged in heterogeneous ways during the GR era, rather than exhibiting a uniform response across schools and communities. These distinct sets of trajectories were strongly patterned by socioeconomic and racial school and neighborhood composition—with schools serving higher-income and majority-White populations more likely to sustain higher academic achievement and access to merit-based aid, while schools serving more economically disadvantaged and racially minoritized populations were more likely to experience persistently lower or declining trajectories. Dual-trajectory analyses further show strong conditional associations between academic performance and scholarship eligibility, such that schools with more favorable achievement trajectories also had substantially higher probabilities of sustained access to merit-based financial aid. These findings indicate that long-run academic trajectories are patterned by existing social and institutional inequalities, with disparities remaining evident during periods of macro socioeconomic disruption. By highlighting heterogeneity in schools’ academic pathways before, during, and after a major economic downturn, this study underscores the importance of approaches that capture such heterogeneity for appropriate educational equity and community health planning.Keywords: academic trajectories; social determinants of health; structural inequality; educational inequality; Great Recession; group-based trajectory modeling; public high schools