Long-Term Changes in Return Intentions after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident: Evidence from Household Surveys in the Futaba Region

This study examines long-term changes in residents’ intentions to return following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, focusing on the Futaba region. Using multiple survey datasets collected between 2011 and 2020, combined with administrative statistics and geospatial data, the study analyzes the structural determinants of return intentions over time.The analysis integrates principal component analysis (PCA), cluster analysis, and time-series approaches to identify key patterns in residents’ attitudes. The results reveal three major groups: those intending to return, those unwilling to return, and those undecided. Over time, the proportion of residents unwilling to return increased, while a persistent undecided group remained sensitive to policy interventions and changes in living conditions.The findings highlight the importance of institutional factors, risk perception, and community conditions in shaping long-term return dynamics. The study contributes to disaster sociology and risk studies by providing a comprehensive, longitudinal perspective on post-disaster evacuation and return behavior, and offers policy implications for managing large-scale evacuations and recovery processes.