Social Capital and Upward Mobility: Insights from Spatial Analysis of Economic Opportunity in the U.S.

Chetty et al. (2022) present compelling evidence that economic connectedness—the connection between people from low- and high-income backgrounds measured using Facebook data—is a strong predictor of upward social mobility in the United States. Their analysis, based on a global regression model, offers a powerful national perspective but implicitly assumes spatial uniformity in this relationship. Building on their work, this study reexamines that assumption by applying geographically weighted regression (GWR) to the same datasets. GWR enables coefficients to vary by location, uncovering spatial heterogeneity in the association between economic connectedness and mobility. Our findings reveal considerable regional variation: while strong positive associations are evident in areas like the Northern Plains, weaker or even slightly negative relationships emerge in the South and along the East and West coasts. These results suggest that the impact of economic connectedness may differ meaningfully across geographic contexts. Rather than contradicting the original conclusions, this study highlights the added value of spatially sensitive approaches, which can inform more nuanced and locally tailored policies aimed at enhancing upward mobility in diverse communities across the United States.