Fertility Preferences During Crises: An Analysis of Finnish Men and Women's Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic and the War in Ukraine

Objective: This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine influenced fertility preferences among young adults in Finland. Background: Crises and periods of uncertainty often lead to declines in fertility preferences in high-income societies. However, some groups may experience an increase in fertility preferences. Method: Using a nationally representative survey conducted in August 2022 (n=1960), we analyzed self-reported changes in fertility preferences in relation to socio-demographic variables through multinomial logistic regression. Additionally, qualitative analysis was conducted on open-ended responses to identify common themes behind these changes. Results: Overall, 17.2% of respondents reported changes in their fertility preferences: 10.1% decreased them, while 7.1% increased them. Men were more likely to increase their fertility preferences in response to both crises, whereas women tended to decrease them due to the war but not the pandemic. Parents were more likely to increase their fertility preferences due to the pandemic but not the war. Unemployed individuals were less likely to change their preferences compared to employed respondents. Qualitative analysis identified two key themes: postponing childbearing due to uncertainty and increasing childbearing due to family values. Conclusion: The two recent crises in Europe had distinct effects on fertility preferences across different demographic groups. Implications: Family planning and social support policies should consider not only economic factors but also non-economic uncertainties, such as political and military instability.