Economic Outcomes of the Great Migration in the U.S. South

In the 1940s, almost 1.5 million african americans moved from the South to the North of the United States. Previous literature on the Great Migration has mostly focused on migrant outcomes and local effects in the North. This paper studies the impact of the Great Migration for those who stayed in the South. It employs linked, full-count census data for 1940 and 1950 as well as World War Two veteran records. Leveraging preexisting migrant networks and variation in war mobilization rates in the North, it identifies exogenous variation in out-migration from the South. It finds that a 10 percentage point increase in out-migration – the average rate in the 1940s – is associated with a 0.63 percentage point increase in a county’s income growth and a 0.72 years increase in its population’s educational attainment. Potential mechanisms include reductions in unemployment and farm mechanization. Taken together, these effects suggest the Great Migration led to economic convergence between the South and the North of the United States.