However Far Away? The Spatial Contingencies of Assortative Mating

This study reconsiders a classic sociological question: how does space shape intimate ties? Specifically, it examines how the spatial segregation of ethnic groups contributes to patterns of ethnic endogamy. It does so by applying conditional logit models to Swedish population registers describing couples who began cohabiting between 1990 and 2017. The models compare observed unions to counterfactual unions drawn from available singles, distinguishing the effects of ancestry assortativity---based on country of origin---from residential propinquity, while controlling for matching on nativity, education, and age. Proximity strongly predicts partnering, but assortativity matters too, particularly for non-Western groups. Mediation analysis shows that failing to account for propinquity overstates endogamy by 20–40 percent for these groups, with stronger mediation for the most segregated groups. The findings suggest that segregation complements ethnic boundaries in the short term, but also suggest how integration may undermine group boundaries in the longer term.