Estimating death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies using the network survival method

Reliable estimates of death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies are criticalfor assessing the severity of a crisis and for effectively allocating resources. However,in many humanitarian settings, logistical and security concerns make conventionalmethods for estimating death rates infeasible. We develop and test a new methodfor estimating death rates in humanitarian emergencies using reports of deaths insurvey respondents’ social networks. To test our method, we collected original data inTanganyika Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a setting where reliableestimates of death rates are in high demand. Qualitative fieldwork suggested testingtwo different types of personal networks as the basis for death rate estimates: deathsamong immediate neighbors and deaths among kin. We benchmarked our networkestimates against a standard retrospective household mortality survey, which estimateda crude death rate nearly twice as high as our network-based methods. Given bothmethods are equally plausible, our findings underscore the need for further validationand development of both methods.