Crisis Vulnerability and Social Stratification: Educational Inequalities in Political Trust Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Educational disparities in political attitudes are well-documented, yet the mechanisms underlying these inequalities remain underexplored. Drawing on identity theory, crisis vulnerability, and social stratification literature we examine educational disparities in changes of political trust during the Covid-19 pandemic and its subsequent years in Germany. We combine individual-level panel data (NEPS, 2017-2023, 24,087 person-years) on trust in institutions and media surveyed before, during, and after the pandemic to explore the role of individual- and household-level crises-affectedness as well as county-level infection rates and restriction measures.Results from linear regression models with individual fixed-effects reveal a sharp and statistically significant initial trust increase, particularly among lower-educated individuals and for institutional trust. As the pandemic progresses, trust declines below pre-crisis levels, with somewhat more pronounced changes among lower-educated individuals. Infection rates, restriction measures or changes in individual objective and subjective pandemic affectedness do not substantively explain educational disparities but mediate both increases and decreases in trust among both groups. From a broader perspective, the results point towards the importance of selective containment measures as well as subjective negative economic and social consequences that are likely to shape attitudinal change in times of crises.