Re-application to university after rejection and later income and occupational status – Using education-linked genes to predict outcomes in longitudinal register data

Research has identified socioeconomic disparity in university enrollment due to a higher likelihood to stop applying after an initial rejection among individuals from less educated families. We investigate the role of education-linked genes alongside family background and experiencing mental illness and other major life events in predicting (re-)application to university. We further examine the later socioeconomic outcomes of individuals who are more persistent in their educational goals.Utilizing longitudinal genetically informed register data from Finland, we analyze a sample of 6,101 individuals born 1987-1990 followed up until 2018. The study uses parental polygenic scores to assess the genetic endowment to high educational attainment (EDU-PGS) combined with information on application behavior (1,683 individuals experienced rejection) and socioeconomic variables. Multinomial and binary logistic regression models and discrete time hazard models are employed.Our findings indicate an intricate interplay of genetic endowments, income and education of the parents, (re-)application behavior, and early adulthood income and occupational status. Individuals with a higher EDU-PGS were more likely to reapply after rejection, suggesting a genetic component in persistence in educational goals and application behaviors beyond family background. Mental illness did not have an effect over and above other included indicators on stop applying, and there was no evidence for the presence of gene-environment interactions. Moreover, application behavior mediated the influence of the polygenic score on occupational status in early adulthood.The study contributes to the broader equality of opportunity debate and shows how genes express themselves in our smaller or bigger decisions. The joint contribution of genetic and family factors has a crucial role in shaping educational trajectories and later socioeconomic outcomes.