When the Tail Wags the Dog: Climate Exposure and News Media Behavior in the Global South

As climate change intensifies so does its salience and potential politicization in the news media. In line with asset-specific views of climate politics, we propose a framework to explain variation in climate reporting based on the interplay of local ecological risks from climate change and anticipated economic vulnerabilities linked to the energy transition away from fossil fuels. We argue that media responses to climate shocks depend on the relative presence of climate-vulnerable populations versus fossil-fuel stakeholders, and propose that different local configurations of asset-holders affect climate coverage and attribution in the media in different ways. In areas without a dominance of organized fossil fuel interests, ecological shocks generate more extensive media climate coverage and clearer links to fossil fuel emissions. By contrast, in local communities where carbon-intensive industries are very strongly embedded, climate coverage is dampened and attribution less frequent. We test these expectations using original media content data in cross-national and sub-national Global South contexts as well as elite interviews conducted in Brazil and Indonesia. Our findings show that fossil fuel presence crucially moderates both the volume and framing of climate reporting. The results highlight how carbon interests can constrain climate discourse at precisely the moments when public engagement with climate issues is most likely.