Scenario Planning for Tech Disruption: A Governance Approach

Technology-driven disruptions are reshaping the business landscape at an unprecedented pace. This white paper presents a governance-focused approach to scenario planning as a strategic tool for boards of directors to anticipate and navigate disruptive technological changes. We outline a six-stage Adaptive Tech Scenario Governance Cycle that integrates scenario planning into board oversight processes, ensuring organizations remain resilient and proactive amid uncertainty. The proposed approach bridges academic foresight techniques and practical board governance needs, providing clear guidance on conducting annual technology disruption scenario workshops and embedding their outcomes into corporate strategy and risk management. Scenario case studies – covering artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, and climate-tech disruptions – illustrate how boards can use scenario planning to uncover emerging risks and opportunities. Finally, the paper offers implementation templates and checklists to operationalize this approach, along with a discussion of limitations and future directions. The goal is to equip governance practitioners with a concrete, repeatable method to enhance strategic foresight and organizational preparedness for the next wave of tech disruption