I Could Have Won More: Large Missed Opportunity Wins Increase Subsequent Risk-Taking in Crypto Crash Gambling

Background and aims: Online gambling has given rise to game designs that may pose unique risks of harm. One novel format of online gambling is crash gambling, a fast-paced game in which players must cash out before a randomly determined crash (aka “bust”) point. A distinctive feature of this design is that even when winning, players often miss out on a larger potential win, a feature we term missed-opportunity wins. This study examined the effects of such missed-opportunity wins on subsequent risk-taking behaviour. Methods: We analysed behavioural tracking data from a crypto crash gambling game. First, an exploratory analysis was conducted on 2,000 players, followed by a pre-registered confirmatory analysis on 15,000 new players. Using Bayesian mixed-effects models, we tested whether the size of a missed-opportunity win in one round predicted changes in wager size and/or the likelihood of being busted in the next round, as indicators of risk-taking. Results: Larger missed-opportunity wins were associated with a greater likelihood of changing one’s wager in the next round. When players adjusted their wager, larger missed-opportunity wins increased the likelihood of raising rather than lowering the wager. Additionally, larger missed-opportunity wins predicted a higher likelihood of being busted in the following round, all indicating different forms of increased risk-taking. Discussion and Conclusions: Missing out on a larger potential win encourages subsequent risk-taking. By demonstrating how counterfactual elements in crash gambling designs shape behaviour, this study highlights behavioural shifts associated with novel online gambling mechanics and can inform policy discussions on their regulation.