The longitudinal effects of exogenous pressures on belief in God in young Americans

The prevalence of religious beliefs and practices is puzzling from evolutionary viewpoint, but previous research suggested that religious traditions provide health and cooperative benefits. Seemingly in contrast with this claim are worldwide secularization trends where people disaffiliate from religions and belief in god(s). Previous theories suggested that diminished exogenous pressures no longer motivate individuals to seek religious benefits and pay the participation costs. We investigate this causal claim using National Study of Youth and Religion dataset, which tracks the development of religiosity among US Christians from adolescence to young adulthood (n = 3 370). Using a general lagged panel methodology, we found that material security in Wave 1 (early adolescence) predicts higher probability of decrease in belief in God in Wave 4 (young adulthood). This result provides support for the hypothesis that participation in religious traditions is associated with living in insecure socio-ecology, where the systems may still confer benefits onto their members. We also examined specific exogenous pressures related to health and trust, but these additional analyses revealed mixed results. We conclude with a call for further research using more nuanced measures and larger sample sizes that may provide further insights into the adaptive nature of cultural systems.