Overconfidence persists despite years of accurate, precise, public, and continuous feedback: Two studies of tournament chess players

Overconfidence is thought to be a fundamental cognitive bias, but it is typically studied in environments where people lack accurate information about their abilities. We conducted a preregistered survey experiment and replication to learn whether overconfidence persists among tournament chess players who receive objective, precise, and public feedback about their skill. Our combined sample comprised 3388 rated players aged 5–88 years, from 22 countries, with M=18.8 years of tournament experience. On average, participants asserted their ability was 89 Elo rating points higher than their observed ratings indicated—expecting to outscore an equally-rated opponent by 2:1. One year later, only 11.3% of overconfident players achieved their asserted ability rating. Low-rated players overestimated their skill the most and top-rated players were calibrated. Patterns consistent with overconfidence emerged in every sociodemographic subgroup we studied. We conclude that overconfidence persists in tournament chess, a real-world information environment that should be inhospitable to it.