How credible is the experimental evidence on precarious manhood? A z-curve analysis

Precarious manhood theory (PMT) explains men’s compensatory responses to masculinity threats in domains such as aggression, risk-taking, and social attitudes. We conducted a field-level credibility analysis of the experimental PMT literature using z-curve, a selection model that estimates discovery and replication properties from the distribution of published results. Across 188 independent samples contributing 452 hypothesis tests, clustered z-curve estimates indicated substantial selection for significance at the conventional 5% threshold and only moderate expected replicability. Subgroup analyses suggested more trustworthy credibility indicators for main effects than interaction tests, for preregistered compared with non-preregistered studies, and for post-2015 work, although evidence of selective reporting remained. Affective, behavioral, and cognitive outcomes showed broadly similar selection patterns, with behavioral outcomes having the weakest evidential profile. Lowering alpha to 1% when interpreting past findings keeps the estimated false-positive risk below 5% and implies that future replications will often require larger samples.