Revisiting the PISA Paradox: A Comparative Meta-Analysis of Growth Mindset Associations with Academic and Psychosocial Outcomes in Mainland China

Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018 reported a puzzling negative association between growth mindsets and achievement in Mainland China. We situated this anomaly by meta-analysing 268 manuscripts to adjudicate between contextual (cultural or educational system constraints) and methodological (design and sampling artefacts) accounts. Contrary to contextual predictions of negative effects, we found positive associations between growth mindset and achievement (r = .182), motivation (r = .264), and health (r = .265), which remained reliable after adjusting for publication bias. Moderator analyses signalled nuanced support for methodological accounts alongside substantial between-study heterogeneity. Associations were weaker in studies resembling PISA's design, with attenuated effects for negatively worded items on motivation and health, and for higher research quality and English-language reporting on achievement. Hence, PISA’s discrepancy likely stems from a confluence of methodological factors. Our analysis illustrates how meta-analysis can inform large-scale assessments and reconceptualise Chinese culture as a potent contextual affordance.