The Psychological Ability to Cope Reduced Infections During the Pandemic: A Two-Year Population-Based Study of The Determinants of 123 Million COVID-19 Test Results in Denmark

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a key concern for authorities was to identify and activate the psychological states most likely to motivate the public to engage in protective behavior such as physical distancing and hygienic protection. While feelings of fear and threat were rampant during the pandemic, theories of health psychology have highlighted appraisals related to the ability to cope (e.g., the feeling of being able to cost-effectively adhere to government advice) and argued that coping appraisals are superior predictors of motivations to protect the self against risks. In this study, we provide a massive population-based comparison of the association between, on the one hand, threat appraisals, and coping appraisals and, on the other hand, protection against actual infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, we utilize a unique data infrastructure from Denmark that couple surveys of 8 % of the adult Danish population (N= 386.633) with the individual results of all 123 million COVID-19 tests performed in Denmark during 23 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, controlling for a comprehensive range of sociodemographic measures and employing panel data to bolster internal validity, we observe that stronger coping appraisals are consistently associated with lower individual probability of COVID-19 infection risk. We find no con-sistent evidence for a similar association for threat appraisals. Threat appraisals rather seem to index – to some extent, accurately – individual feelings of infection exposure. As appeals to fear also have unintended negative consequences (includ-ing anxiety, fatigue, and stigmatization), the findings provide strong empirical support for relying on coping-oriented public health communication in future societal crises in the domain of health and beyond.