Affective Forecasting Accuracy in Everyday Life

People often predict how they might feel in the future, with varying degrees of accuracy. Such affective forecasts can centre around periods of time (e.g., tomorrow, next week) and/or specific events (e.g., an upcoming meeting). Affective forecasts for quotidian events or periods of time are the building blocks of everyday decision-making. Yet, most affective forecasting research has focused on forecasting accuracy for rare and consequential events, such as election results and romantic break-ups. Therefore, in two intensive longitudinal datasets, we tested everyday forecasting accuracy in general and in relation to specific unpleasant events. In Study 1—a week-long experience sampling study—participants (N=209) provided (i) one weekly forecast about their feelings over the next week, and (ii) daily forecasts about their feelings the next day. Participants also rated their (i) daily affect each evening, and (ii) their momentary affect nine times each day. In Study 2—a two-week daily diary—participants (N=69) nominated an upcoming unpleasant event each day and forecasted their affect in relation to that event. Each evening, participants rated how they felt when this event occurred. We found that participants could predict when a day/event would make them feel better/worse than usual, showing relative accuracy, but sometimes made small errors in forecasting their absolute affect levels, showing absolute inaccuracy. These findings suggest that people make smaller forecasting errors in everyday life than for major events, which likely aids everyday decision making, for example by informing the use of future-oriented affect-regulation strategies (e.g., situation selection).