Explaining Support for Environmental Public Policies Through the Value-Belief-Norm Theory: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

Objective: In democratic societies, public opinion influences government policy. The urgency of global climate action highlights the importance of understanding public support towards environmental policies. The Value-Belief-Norm theory offers a model for understanding psychological processes underlying pro-environmental policy support. This study aims to evaluate the Value-Belief-Norm theory as an explanatory model of policy support. Method: We searched Web of Science, Scopus, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and three registries. We included 23 cross-sectional survey studies testing the Value-Belief-Norm model to explain support for environmental public policies, nine of which were eligible for random-effects meta-analysis of correlations. Results: Model-explained variance in policy support ranged from 2% to 72%, with substantial variation in the Value-Belief-Norm theory application across studies. Policy support was positively associated with Ascription of responsibility (r = .39, p < .001), Awareness of consequences (r = .37, p < .001), Pro-environmental personal norms (r = .36, p < .001), Ecological worldview (r = .28, p < .001) and Altruistic values (r = .13, p < .01). The strongest correlations were between policy support and policy-specific beliefs, specifically Perceived fairness (r = .77, p < .001) and Perceived effectiveness (r = .59, p < .001), which are not part of the Value-Belief-Norm theory. Conclusions: The Value-Belief-Norm theory performs adequately at explaining public support for environmental policies but it does not include beliefs about policy fairness and effectiveness, which are the main reasons why the public support and oppose environmental policies.