Geographically Segregated Culture is associated with Lower Mobility, Weaker Democracy, and Risk of Civil Conflict

Stable nations require strangers to coordinate and cooperate despite cultural differences. Using the Cultural Fixation Index (CFST) on World Values Survey data (more than 260,000 participants; 95 countries; 2005–2022), we quantified within-country cultural distances between regions, ethnicities, religious groups, education levels, and social classes, to predict various measures of social mobility, democracy, and civil conflict. A pre-registered multiverse analysis (54,600 model specifications; 100 model families; 6 demographic groupings; 6 outcome measures) showed only one robust pattern of negative societal outcomes: larger cultural distance between geographic regions is associated with higher corruption, weaker democracy, lower social mobility, and greater risk of civil conflict. Distances between ethnic, religious, and socioeconomic groups were mostly benign, and educational distance was often associated with better outcomes. The results imply that what matters is not diversity per se, but whether culturally distinct groups are geographically segregated and therefore less likely to regularly interact to negotiate the cultural traits needed for cooperation and coordination.