Cultural Distance Between Subnational Regions is Associated With Higher Conflict

Stable nations require strangers to coordinate and cooperate despite regional, cultural, religious, educational, and class differences. We quantified how far apart cultural differences between these groups actually are and then used them to predict various measures of conflict within each country. Using the Cultural Fixation Index (CFST) on World Values Survey data (more than 260,000 participants; 95 countries; 2005–2022), we measured cultural distance between groups defined by their region, ethnicity, religion, education level, income level, and subjective social class. A pre-registered multiverse analysis (54,600 model specifications; 100 model families; 6 demographic groupings; 6 outcome measures) showed only one robust pattern of negative societal outcomes: larger cultural distance between geographic regions predicts more corruption, weaker democracy, lower social mobility, and greater risk of civil conflict. Distances between ethnic, religious, and socioeconomic groups were mostly benign, and educational distance was often associated with better outcomes. The results imply that what matters is not diversity per se, but whether culturally distinct groups are geographically segregated and therefore less likely to regularly interact to negotiate the cultural traits needed for cooperation and coordination.