A Longitudinal Multilevel Analysis of Individual- and Contextual-Level Predictors of Cross-Ethnic Friendships in the UK

Intergroup contact plays a central role in fostering positive intergroup attitudes; yet factors promoting intergroup contact are less understood. Using three waves of data from a nationally representative UK household panel study (N=18,807), we applied longitudinal multilevel models to examine how individual- and objective area-level indicators jointly predict cross-ethnic friendships. At the individual-level, higher openness and agreeableness, stronger neighbourhood belonging, and a left-leaning political orientation were associated with more cross-ethnic friendships. At the contextual-level, intergroup friendships were more common in neighbourhoods with more structural opportunity for contact (i.e. areas with a lower proportion of same-ethnic residents), and in areas with higher support for egalitarian policies (as indicated by local voting patterns). Crucially, cross-level interactions highlighted the interplay of person and place: neighbourhood diversity fostered more cross-ethnic friendships especially among those with strong neighbourhood belonging, suggesting that people who feel embedded in their community are more likely to turn diverse surroundings into meaningful intergroup ties. Differences between ethnic majority and minority groups also emerged. For example, higher area-level racial hate-crime incidence predicted more intergroup friendships among majority members, suggesting a possible repair response, but had no effect for minority members. Findings underscore multilevel and group-specific pathways to sustained intergroup friendships.