Are Errors More Aversive in an Uncertain World? Testing the Influence of Uncertainty on the Error-Related Negativity in a Randomized Controlled Trial

Overactive error monitoring—as measured by the error-related negativity (ERN)—is acandidate transdiagnostic risk marker for internalizing psychopathology. Previous research reportedassociations of the ERN and individual differences in intolerance of uncertainty (IU). These findingsimply associations between the subconstructs of IU (prospective and inhibitory IU) and the ERN,which we sought to replicate and extend by testing for causal influences that might elucidate specificmechanisms underlying this association. To test cross-sectional and longitudinal associations ofuncertainty and the ERN, a preregistered, randomized-controlled design was employed. Aftermeasuring the baseline ERN of N = 120 university students, a subsample was randomly assigned totwo groups: While an intervention group (n = 30) performed an unsolvable probabilistic “learning”task intended to induce uncertainty, a passive control group (n = 30) rested. Subsequently, the ERNwas assessed again (T1). Self-reported uncertainty was assessed before and after the intervention. Forexploratory cross-sectional analyses, two further samples from different study sites were included toincrease the sensitivity of the replication attempt by including psychophysiological data from N = 355participants. Cross-sectionally, no effects of IU on the ERN emerged. Longitudinally, the interventiongroup displayed increased self-reported uncertainty after the intervention, but no evidence emergedfor ERN alterations attributable to the intervention. The link between individual differences in IU andthe ERN might be smaller and less robust than previous findings suggest, reflecting the understudiedcharacter of this association. The absence of evidence for mechanistic changes in the ERN due to asuccessful induction of uncertainty further questions a link between IU and the ERN. In line withprevious studies that linked increased ERN to anxiety, independent of clinical status, the ERN seemsunaffected by short-term changes such as symptom provocations in non-clinical populations