Predicting task success with digital trail making test in usability studies across industrial contexts

Cognitive functional abilities are increasingly recognized as critical determinants of task performance in information technology (IT) use. However, usability studies typically overlook this source of variability, which can lead to oversampling high-functioning subjects who compensate for interface weaknesses, thereby masking usability issues and effective design recommendations. The present study evaluated whether a brief digital Trail Making Test (TMT), administered through the Axon iPad application, could predict IT task success across heterogeneous industrial contexts. Data were pooled from 225 subjects enrolled in nine laboratory-based usability studies spanning four industrial contexts, namely banking, learning, transport, and media. All subjects completed Axon TMT Parts A and B prior to the main usability task. The key finding is that Axon TMT B, but not clearly Axon TMT A, predicted success on IT tasks in usability studies. Specifically, each additional second on Axon TMT B was associated with about a 1.92% decrease in the likelihood of task success. Both Axon A and B completion times increased with age, but neither was related to sex. Importantly, the predictive effect of Axon TMT B remained stable across different industrial contexts and task types, suggesting it may be a useful general screening measure of IT task readiness in usability research.