Older Age-Group Differences in Long-Term Psychological Outcomes Related to Bushfire Exposure and Sense of Community: Findings from the Beyond Bushfires Longitudinal Study

Increasingly frequent and severe climate disasters and rapid population ageing are two intersecting trends with complex implications for population health. However, less is known about key predictors of adverse long-term psychological impacts of climate disasters for older adults, with existing evidence typically adopting a lens of vulnerability that suggest older adults fare worse than younger generations. This secondary analysis of the Beyond Bushfires study explores key risk and protective factors as predictors of long-term psychological distress for adults from 25 communities in Victoria (Australia) affected by the 2009 bushfires. Key factors included self-rated extent of property loss during bushfires (risk) and sense of community at data collection (protective). Multivariable logistic regression examined associations between these factors and moderate-to-severe psychological distress 10 years post-bushfire, adjusting for confounders - including sociodemographic and fire-related variables, recent traumatic and stressful events, and community-level bushfire affectedness. Effect modification by age group (<60 vs ≥60 years) was tested.Greater property loss was associated with increased odds of psychological distress (OR = 1.10, 95%CI [1.03–1.19]), while stronger sense of community was protective (OR = 0.84, 95%CI [0.78–0.89]). No significant effect modification was found.Ten years after the Black Saturday bushfires, property loss and sense of community remained key determinants of psychological wellbeing, with similar effects across age groups. This provides important evidence that the resources and capacities available to individuals and communities are likely a greater indicator of post-disaster strengths and vulnerabilities than older age – and a need for policies to be reflective of this.