Hope and Fear in Times of Crisis: How Emotion and Optimism Shape Geopolitical Predictions

When crisis strikes, does the presence of real and immediate threat compel us to think realistically about the future? Or does the distress in such situations lead us to prioritize emotional relief and hope? In this study, we examined how individuals formed predictions amidst a severe national crisis, the October 7th attacks and ensuing war in Israel. Analyzing data from 1,029 Israeli participants, we find evidence for wishful thinking: at a group-level, participants tended to assign higher probabilities to outcomes they considered preferable, and lower probabilities to outcomes they feared. These effects were more pronounced among optimists. These findings document the existence of optimistic distortions even in an environment where personal consequences were salient. The study’s implications extend to both individual judgment as well as institutional decision-making, emphasizing the need for strategies that counteract bias while recognizing the positive psychological functions of optimism during crisis.